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All Journal dCartesian: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasi MATEMATIKA Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Kreano, Jurnal Matematika Kreatif-Inovatif Khazanah Informatika: Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Informatika Jurnal Fourier Science and Technology Indonesia JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) International Journal on Emerging Mathematics Education SJME (Supremum Journal of Mathematics Education) Jambura Journal of Mathematics jurnal teknik informatika dan sistem informasi KAIBON ABHINAYA : JURNAL PENGABDIAN MASYARAKAT Jurnal Sains dan Edukasi Sains Journal of Science and Science Education Jurnal Ilmiah Sains Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Penelitian Matematika dan Pembelajarannya
Hanna Arini Parhusip
Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Science and Technology Indonesia

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Susceptible Vaccine Infected Removed (SVIR) Model for COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia Hanna Arini Parhusip; Suryasatriya Trihandaru; Bernadus Aryo Adhi Wicaksono; Denny Indrajaya; Yohanes Sardjono; Om Prakash Vyas
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 7 No. 3 (2022): July
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2154.038 KB) | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2022.7.3.400-408

Abstract

Analysis of data on COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is shown by using the Susceptible Vaccine Infected Removed (SVIR) in this article. In the previous research, cases in the period March-May 2021 were studied, and the reproduction number was computed based on the Susceptible Infected Removed (SIR) model. The prediction did not agree with the real data. Therefore the objective of this article is to improve the model by adding the vaccine variable leading to the new model called the SVIR model as the novelty of this article. The used data are collected from COVID-19 cases of the Indonesian population published by the Indonesian government from March 2020-April 2022. However, the vaccinated persons with COVID-19 cases have been recorded since January 2022. Therefore the models rely on the period January 2021-March 2022, where the parameters in the SIR and SVIR models are determined in this period. The method used is discretizing the models into linear systems, and these systems are solved by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) for time-dependent parameters. It is assumed that the birth rate and death rate in the considered period are constant. Additionally, individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 will not be infected again, and vaccination is not necessarily twice. Furthermore, individuals who have been vaccinated will not be infected with the COVID-19 virus. The SVIR model has captured 3 waves of COVID-19 cases that are appropriate to the real situation in Indonesia from January 2021-March 2022. Additionally, the reproduction numbers as functions of time have been generated. The fluctuations of reproduction numbers agree with the real data. For further research, different regions such as districts in Java and other islands will also be analyzed as the implication of this research.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Adi Setiawan Adi Setiawan Adrianus Herry Heriadi Atyanta Nika Rukmasari Bambang Susanto Bernadus Aryo Adhi Wicaksono Carolina Febe Ronicha Putri Denny Indrajaya Endang Warsiki Hindriyanto Dwi Purnomo Istiarsi Saptuti Sri Kawuryan Istiarsi Saptuti Sri Sri Kawuryan Istiarsih Saputri Sri Kawuryan Leopoldus Ricky Sasongko Lilik Linawati Magdalena Dwi Puspasari Mitha Febby R. Donggori Nafisah Riskya Hasna Nirmala Ayu Andika Fitri Nugroho, Didit Budi Obed Christian Dimitrio Om Prakash Vyas Petrus Priyo Santosa Puput Retno Muninggar Suryasatriya Trihandaru Theo Sarita, Fetriks Titilias, Y A Wynona Adita Pradani Yohanes Sardjono Yohanes Sardjono Yusuf Kurniawan